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Editorials   Is Gamecube Nintendo's Last Console?
- By Francis Bonnet

It’s no secret that many analysts are questioning whether or not Nintendo will “pull a Sega” and discontinue manufacturing video game hardware in the future. At the beginning of October Nintendo cut its worldwide Gamecube sales forecast of 12 million units down to 10. Since then, Nintendo’s stocks have continued to plummet. Even with the recent release of Super Mario Sunshine, a NEW Mario game, Nintendo is still having trouble keeping second place, and there has never been a time in Nintendo’s history of console gaming where they weren’t at LEAST second place. Xbox continues to outsell Gamecube in the U.S., even if only by a small margin. In Europe Gamecube has a larger userbase than Xbox, however, Xbox sales have increased by 20 percent during the last two weeks - currently putting it ahead of Nintendo in sales. Playstation 2, of course, is market leader in Japan, the U.S., and Europe with an estimated userbase of 30 million worldwide, which puts it far above Xbox and Gamecube, both which hover around 8 million.

Now as games continue to get more and more expensive to develop, a company needs to have a high userbase in order to be profitable. Microsoft will continue to throw money at the Xbox for as long as it takes until it begins to make a profit, however, Nintendo’s pockets aren’t as deep as Microsoft’s. In order to pull ahead of Microsoft, Nintendo’s going to have to really promote its upcoming software and focus their advertising for groups of all ages in all types of mediums. Nintendo needs to focus more of its energies on online gaming. Yes, I know that they believe it’s a risk and I know that they don’t believe it will be profitable. However, it’s a risk that they need to take in order to please all types of gamers. Nintendo doesn’t need to heavily invest in online gaming, but there needs to be more options than just Phantasy Star Online.

Analysts predict that the Gamecube will hold 21 percent of the market and Xbox will hold 16. Right now it’s no longer a race for first place, as it’s very unlikely that Nintendo will be able to top Sony in the 128-bit wars. The race now is for second place, and if sales don’t come near Nintendo’s prediction of 50 million Gamecube units sold by 2005, then the probability of Nintendo leaving the console market has never been greater. Microsoft can afford to stay in the console market for as long as it takes, even if they have the lowest sales. The sad truth is that Nintendo can’t.